Six Healthcare Predictions for 2021
More than any other year in recent memory, the focus of 2020 has been healthcare. Digital health funding hit a record high of $9.4BN by Q3 2020 and is expected to reach $12BN by the end of the year. Although vaccines are starting to get rolled out globally and travel excitement is creeping in, many of the ways that we access and interact with healthcare have fundamentally changed. As we enter 2021, I outlined some thoughts and predictions I have for the upcoming year:
1/ Higher adoption and improvement of telemedicine services
2020 was the breakout year for virtual doctor visits and remote patient care. The pandemic has accelerated the trend of virtual care and for many people, it has been their primary source of care in 2020. In mid-April, telehealth visits comprised 69% of total visits. Some health systems reported a 4000% increase in telehealth visits. Not only a solution for older or high-risk individuals during Covid, telemedicine is a great solution for countries with large rural populations or limited access or availability of doctors. Some people may opt to never return to in-person visits. For others, the convenience of virtual visits was a selling point, but they still feel there is lots of room for improvement with regard to payment parity, cloud-based EHR migration, and standardized patient care. Although telemedicine came a long way in 2020, I expect that 2021 will be centered on optimizing care and expanding access with regard to this technology.
2/ Rocket ship year for CRISPR/Cas9 as a tool for precision medicine
One of my first posts last year was about the potential of precision medicine — you can read it here.
Precision medicine requires harnessing large amounts of data with regard to a person’s genetic makeup so that drugs and therapies can be tailored to be more effective and targeted. A tool for precision medicine, genome editing technologies, such as the CRISPR/Cas9 system, allow genetic material to be added, removed, or changed at certain locations in the genome — this is a monumental opportunity in the prevention and treatment of diseases, and I expect this technology to accelerate in 2021.
3/ Continued funding for sleep, fitness, and mental health solutions
Mental health: I wrote about this last year also, and I’m happy to see that in the midst of the pandemic, discussing mental health and seeking help is part of a more mainstream discussion. According to Teladcoc Health data, virtual mental healthcare visits are up 79% for men and 75% for women since January. Meditation apps, such as Calm and Headspace, have seen record downloads in 2020. With the momentum gained by Calm through its partnership with Kaiser Permanente and its clever marketing during CNN’s election night coverage, I expect we will see these tailwinds increase into 2021.
Sleep: Disturbance of sleep patterns and insomnia are common as stress levels rise — this was a common effect of the pandemic. According to data from GM Insights, the sleep tech market will reach $32BN in size by 2026. Consumers are ready to shell out money for solutions that help them get a good night’s sleep. After all, who doesn’t need a weighted blanket?
Fitness: Virtual fitness will continue to dominate in 2021. With many gyms expected to be locked down or at reduced capacity at least for the beginning of the year, people will continue to engage with on-demand and digital fitness platforms to get their daily fix of exercise. Gyms and fitness centers will need to quickly go digital if they haven’t already and look into solutions such as incorporating fitness trackers or watches into their digital offerings. The most impressive stat in this space I’ve seen this year speaks for itself: Peloton stock is up 445% YTD; the company’s recent acquisition of Precor was a testament to the insane demand they are seeing from consumers.
I also expect to see employers investing more into corporate health and wellness offerings. This year has highlighted the importance of mental and physical health, especially when working from home, and could be a deciding factor for people when looking for a new job.
4/ Focus on the microbiome and personalized nutrition
Increasingly, people are looking to food as a type of preventative medicine and are optimizing their diet to improve their gut health. In addition to the continued shift towards dairy and meat alternatives, ethically sourced foods, and functional beverages, people are continuing to go crazy about kefir, turmeric, and probiotics.
According to Crunchbase, VCs have invested over $1BN into U.S. companies working on gut microbiome projects in the past five years. With approximately 40% of the world’s population having some sort of digestive issue, I expect funding in this space to increase dramatically next year as health and wellness, biology, and genomics become increasingly intertwined.
5/ Lack of improvement in contact tracing capabilities
It’s been almost a full year into the pandemic, and the U.S., along with many other Western countries, have failed to adequately contact trace to contain the pandemic. Many Asian countries on the other hand, such as South Korea and Japan, have been using data surveillance technologies and cellphone location data to contact trace. Rapid transmission and declining public trust coupled with “antiquated technology and underfunded healthcare systems” are barriers that are hard to overcome. Additionally, there are so many steps that can go wrong along the way when it comes to contact tracing: delay in testing, failure to isolate, and the failure to provide contact information. This complex layered approach on top of a shaky healthcare system leaves me feeling apprehensive about progress in contact tracing over the next year.
6/ Tech companies and corporates will dive further into healthcare
Over the summer, Walmart announced its plan of opening up “healthcare supercenters” around the U.S. that include a full suite of healthcare services on site. A month later, Walmart discreetly entered the health insurance industry by selling policies directly to consumers. And now, Walmart is looking to take on the vaccine rollout in the U.S.
Amazon and Apple are also companies to watch in the healthcare realm. In November, Amazon revealed its launch of a digital pharmacy that came along with discount for U.S Prime members. Apple has been making a push into the consumer health space with the Apple Watch and recently revealed the a blood oxygen sensor on the latest model. In 2021, we will see a greater blending of retail and healthcare.
